Mortgage rates don’t move randomly — they follow two key numbers. If you know how to track them, you can often see rate changes coming before they hit the headlines or your lender’s rate sheet.
If you want to get ahead of mortgage rate changes, stop relying on yesterday’s headlines. I use Mortgage News Daily to track rates in real time — but the real edge comes from watching the relationship between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year UMBS (Mortgage-Backed Securities).
Here’s why: š When demand for the 10-year Treasury rises, yields fall — often signaling lower mortgage rates ahead. š¦ When UMBS prices rise, it means investors are willing to accept lower returns, allowing lenders to lower rates. By tracking both, you can often anticipate rate moves before they show up in the news or lender quotes. This is how you go from reacting to rates… to forecasting them.
